Best forTeams building forecasts or risk scoring
Core ideaModels create value when decisions and action paths are clear
Define the decision
Before selecting a model, define who will use the prediction, what action changes, and what evidence makes it acceptable.
A simple baseline connected to a decision can outperform a complex model that nobody acts on.
Measure adoption
Track forecast review cadence, override reasons, action completion, and downstream outcomes.
Predictive systems should improve the operating rhythm, not just a dashboard score.
01Start with the decision.
02Compare against a baseline.
03Monitor drift and adoption.
Practical takeaways
- Start with the decision.
- Compare against a baseline.
- Monitor drift and adoption.